Crime Lab Chicago Homicide Rate Compared: Most Big Cities Don't Recover From Spikes Right Away
Chicago Tribune / September 26, 2017
By Yuliana Romanyshyn
Following another violent summer, Chicago homicides remain stubbornly high, only slightly behind the historic spike in 2016.
This trend is reflected in 30 years of homicide data from major U.S. cities: If homicides fall after a spike, it's usually not by much.
Among 18 of the largest homicide-rate spikes analyzed by the Tribune, 11 were followed by further increases the next year. And among the seven spikes that were followed by declines none did so by more than half of the original increase.
If Chicago homicides continue at the current rate, about 8 percent fewer than 2016, the city is on pace for nearly 700 and a decrease in the homicide rate by 2.2 per 100,000 residents.